Emerging Technologies & the Future of Work in India

We examine the likely impact of 4IR technologies on job displacement, employment conditions, and labor market inequities in India.

Global narratives on the impact of 4IR need to be localised and reexamined. While new technologies will be developed and deployed globally, the impact on the future of work will be mediated through local political, legal and socio-economic structures.

This study examines the likely impact of 4IR on the Future of Work in India, with a specific focus on job-displacement, employment conditions, and labor market inequities in India.

With official labor data largely limited to the organized sector and 4IR still at an emergent stage, this study presents its findings in terms of propositions about the likely impact of 4IR over the next five to ten years. It would be pertinent to note that propositions are statements of high likelihood and plausibility, not predictions. In so far as the adoption of 4IR technology will be shaped by India’s particular socio-economic and political context, it follows that technology trajectories are not a neutral force. The study accordingly emphasizes the socio-political dimensions of technological trajectories and their impact.

How will technology trajectories and their impact on jobs in India vary from those identified globally, for industrialized economies, given India's socio-economic context? Which sectors and job types will experience the most labor disruptions and where will new jobs be created?

Automation and Job Displacement
  • High automation potential of routine tasks will reduce labor mobility

  • Adoption in organized manufacturing and services will be in niches

  • Construction and agriculture will experience incremental mechanization

  • Unorganized sector will benefit from microtechnology

How will employment relationships and conditions be altered? How will technology trajectories intersect with persistent informality India?

Employment Conditions
  • Growth in the platform economy will reorganize informality

  • Increasing contractual work within the organized sector

  • Increasing shift from wage employment to self-employment

How will the quality of work change and how might this recast social relationships? Which social groups are likely to be the most impacted?

Inequities in Labor Markets
  • Gender inequities will persist, even as women avail new opportunities

  • Marginalized communities will be further marginalized

Authors

Urvashi Aneja

Urvashi Aneja is Founding Director of Tandem Research. She works on the governance and sociology of emerging technology; southern partnerships for humanitarian and development assistance; and the power and politics of global civil society. Urvashi is also Associate Fellow at Chatham House and a columnist for the Indian Express. She has a PhD from the Department of Politics & International Relations, University of Oxford. Previously, she was Associate Professor of International Relations at the OP Jindal Global University and Research Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.

Ira Anjali Anwar

Ira Anjali Anwar is a Research Fellow at Tandem Research. Having completed her masters in Psycho-Social Clinical studies, she worked with Aruna Roy, in collaboration with McGill University on the questions of Participatory Democracy and the role of Public Policy. She specializes in the politics of the Future of Work in the context of emerging technologies and labour markets in developing countries. She also leads Tandem's Research Program team.

Vikrom Mathur

Vikrom is an anthropologist of science and technology. His diverse research interests include the governance of emerging technologies, social and cultural dimensions of technological transitions, political and social contingencies on the production of scientific knowledge about Nature, cultural perceptions of environmental risk, dynamics between science and policy, and Cultural Theory. He has a PhD from the Institute of Science, Society, and Innovation at the University of Oxford. Vikrom is a Senior Fellow of the Observer Research Foundation & Associate Fellow of the Stockholm Environment Institute.

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